Thursday 25 June 2009

What if twitter was Vodafone?

Everyone is still tweeting about twitter... It's user base is up by 1448% year on year to 18m people don't you know! My clients are tweeting (at dinner with us!), every conference I read about has live tweeting...haven't you guys paid for insights?

I still don't really see a use for it today. It's like Facebook updates without being able to scour through peoples drunken photos. Surely there aren't 18m sheep?

Nielsen reports that 60% of users who sign up for one month won't return for the next

In contrast, the same article cites that other sites like Facebook and MySpace have retention rates in the 50-70% range.

I wonder what the 'Active' user base is? If you were a telco and had twitter's retention problem it would all be over. It's just so expensive - a brand with strong retention spends hardly anything to replace customers and only focuses on incremental new customers. A brand with poor retention has to replace the old customers and then climb the curve again to acquire incremental new customers.

Second, in the quest to get either replacement or net new customers, the company will exhaust the available customer base very quickly and, once exhausted, will reach the limit of its growth.

So what does that mean? Well, we need to see a greater level of utility from twitter - it needs to mean something to us. We have seen mobile soar and soar with the use of smartphones and of course the twitterati will have the last laugh, but I just wish they weren't so smug and just bide their time.

Revolutions don't happen overnight

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